Value Bet

A Value Bet is a wager where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of the event occurring, meaning the bet has positive expected value (+EV) over the long term.

A value bet exists when:

Implied Probability from Odds < Actual Probability

For example, if a team has 3.00 odds to win, the bookmaker implies a 33.3% probability (1 ÷ 3.00 = 0.333). However, if your analysis suggests the team has a 40% chance of winning, the bet is "value" because the true odds should be 2.50, not 3.00.

• Winning in the long run: Even if a single value bet loses, placing enough of them based on correct probability estimations leads to long-term profit.
• Sharp betting strategy: Professional bettors and syndicates focus on finding value, not just picking winners.
• Beating the bookmaker: Bookmakers set odds with a built-in margin (vig), and finding value bets helps counteract this edge.

A good bettor doesn't just bet on favorites or underdogs—they bet on value, regardless of which side it's on.